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“Understanding the future of personal mobility mobility by improving powertrain effi ciency and
requires an integrated analysis of technology, in- deploying alternative fuel vehicles in the coming
frastructure, consumer choice, and government decades. These changes must be accompanied
policy,” says MITEI Director Robert C. Armstrong, by decarbonization of the production of the fuels
a professor of chemical engineering at MIT. “The and electricity that power these vehicles in order
study team has examined how these different di- to reach global emissions mitigation targets and
mensions will develop and interact, and the report achieve cleaner air and other environmental and
offers possible pathways toward achieving a more human health benefi ts.
sustainable personal transportation system.”
“Our analysis shows that reducing the carbon in-
Understanding the future of tensity of the light-duty vehicle fl eet contributes to
personal mobility requires an climate change mitigation goals, as part of the lar-
ger solution,” says Sergey Paltsev, deputy director
“integrated analysis of of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Po-
technology, infrastructure, licy of Global Change and senior research scientist
at MITEI. “If we are to reach international goals for
consumer choice, and limiting temperature rise and other climate change-
government policy related impacts, we will need comprehensive cli-
mate policies that promote the adoption of alter-
native fuel vehicles in the transportation sector and
Multiple parameters simultaneously decarbonize the electricity sector.”
We will need comprehensive
The study team of MIT faculty, researchers, and
students focused on fi ve main areas of inquiry. They climate policies that promote
investigated the potential impact of global climate “the adoption of alternative fuel
policies on fl eet composition and fuel consumption, vehicles in the transportation
and the outlook for vehicle ownership and travel,
with a focus on the U.S. and China. They also re- sector and simultaneously
searched characteristics and future market share decarbonize the electricity
of alternative fuel vehicles, including plug-in electric
and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and infrastructure sector
considerations for charging and fueling, particularly
as they affect future demand. Another main area of
focus was the future of urban mobility, especially
the potentially disruptive role of ride-hailing services
and autonomous vehicles.

Figure 2.12- Global EV stock with accelerated support

Consumer choices

Several factors infl uence an individual’s decision to
Powertrain effi ciency, adopt an alternative fuel vehicle, such as a batte-
ry electric vehicle. The researchers found that the
alternative fuels, most important, interrelated factors that impact al-
decarbonized electricity ternative vehicle adoption include cost, driving ran-
ge, and charging convenience.

The researchers fi nd that there is considerable They conclude that as production volumes incre-
opportunity for reducing emissions from personal ase, battery costs and the purchase price of elec-

Impiantistica Italiana - Gennaio-Febbraio 2020 17