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FuTurE MobIlITy

tric vehicles will decrease, which will in turn drive
sales. Improved batteries would extend the vehicle The MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI) is MIT’s hub
range, reinforcing the attractiveness of alternative for energy research, education, and outreach—
fuel vehicles to consumers. Greater deployment of connecting faculty, students, and staff to develop
electric vehicles creates a larger market for publicly the technologies and solutions
available charging infrastructure, which is critical that will deliver clean, afforda-
for supporting charging convenience. Early go- ble, and plentiful sources of
vernment support for alternative fuel vehicles and energy. MITEI’s mission is to
charging and fueling infrastructure can help launch develop low- and no-carbon
a self-reinforcing trajectory of adoption—and has solutions that will efficiently and
already contributed to an increase in alternative fuel sustainably meet global energy
vehicle deployment. needs while minimizing environmental impacts,
dramatically reducing greenhouse gas emis-
sions, and mitigating climate change.

reach total cost-of-ownership parity with internal
combustion engine vehicles in approximately 10
years in the U.S. It should also lead to new busi-
ness opportunities, including solutions for develo-
ping cost-effective methods of recycling batteries
on an industrial scale.

Consumer attitudes

The researchers also examined the role of consu-
mer attitudes toward car ownership and use in both
Figure 3.3 - U.S. Vehicle sales by population cohort established and emerging economies. In the U.S.,
Note: Data from Kurylko (2017).
the researchers analyzed trends in population and
Total cost of ownership socio-economic factors to estimate future demand
for vehicles and vehicle travel. While many have
argued that lower car ownership and use among
“We found that substantial uptake of battery elec- millennials may lead to a reduced personal vehi-
tric vehicles is likely and that the extent and speed cle fleet in coming decades, the study team found
of this transition to electrification is sensitive to that generational differences could be completely
evolving battery costs, availability of charging in- explained by differences in socio-economics—
frastructure, and policy support,” says William H. meaning that there is no significant difference in
Green, a professor of chemical engineering at MIT preferences for vehicle ownership or use between
and the study chair. This large-scale deployment of millennials and previous generations. Therefore, the
battery electric vehicles is expected to help them stock of light-duty vehicles and number of vehicle-
miles traveled will likely increase by approximately
30% by 2050 in the U.S. In addition, the analysis
indicates that “car pride”—the attribution of social
status and personal image to owning and using
a car—has an effect on car ownership as strong
as that of income. An analysis of car pride across
countries revealed that car pride is higher in emer-
ging vehicle markets; among established markets,
car pride is highest in the U.S.
The adoption of new technologies and business
models for personal mobility at scale will requi-
re major shifts in consumer perceptions and be-
haviors, notes Joanna Moody, research program
manager of MITEI’s Mobility Systems Center and
a coordinating author of the report. “Symbolic and
emotional attachments to car ownership and use,
particularly among individuals in emerging econo-
mies, could pose a significant barrier to the wide-
Figure 4.1 - Propulsion system cost breakdowns for vehicles with interior volumes of 99–
118 ft3 spread adoption of more sustainable alternatives
Note: Costs are relative to a representative ICE powertrain with cost $4,500 and range of to privately owned vehicles powered by petroleum-
383 miles; black lines and numbers indicate net incremental costs over a 2017 ICEV; values based fuels,” Moody says. “We will need proactive
in parentheses for each drivetrain denote the total range (mi), all-electric range (e-mi) or efforts through public policy to establish new social
hydrogen range (H2-mi) for these vehicles. norms to break down these barriers.”

18 18 Impiantistica Italiana - Gennaio-Febbraio 2020